{"id":1220,"date":"2026-04-14T06:11:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-14T12:11:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/?p=1220"},"modified":"2026-04-13T07:23:35","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T13:23:35","slug":"according-to-research-you-and-i-are-probably-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/2026\/04\/14\/according-to-research-you-and-i-are-probably-wrong\/","title":{"rendered":"According to Research, You and I Are Probably Wrong"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Curiosity, Conversation, and the Quiet Collapse of a Divided Society<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"658\" height=\"332\" src=\"https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/no-kings.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1221\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/no-kings.png 658w, https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/no-kings-300x151.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 658px) 100vw, 658px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3>In Case You Missed Recent Articles<\/h3>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list wp-block-latest-posts\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/2026\/05\/05\/mother-knew-best\/\">Mother Knew Best<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/2026\/04\/28\/moral-relativism-the-tyranny-we-call-kindness\/\">Moral Relativism: The Tyranny We Call Kindness<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/2026\/04\/21\/why-therapy-is-so-hard-for-men\/\">Why Therapy is So Hard For Men<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/2026\/04\/14\/according-to-research-you-and-i-are-probably-wrong\/\">According to Research, You and I Are Probably Wrong<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/2026\/04\/07\/the-diary-of-existing-beliefs\/\">The Diary of Existing Beliefs<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The recent \u201cNo Kings\u201d protests garnered less attention than previous rallies. While it seems to be dying out, it still got my attention. I spoke with people who attended them, read write-ups on the protests, and watched various clips covering the day\u2019s events. I was curious as to what exactly they were protesting. The results were baffling.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some of the main points included:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Executive orders<\/li><li>Removing illegal aliens<\/li><li>Ignoring the constitution<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>I couldn\u2019t help but think, where were these outcries when Biden was in office? These are some of the same things the other side were upset about when Biden was in office. I thought, <em>why are they mad now, but not back then<\/em>? And <em>why are conservatives not mad now, but were back then<\/em>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>Executive Orders<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>It is fair to say Trump has issued the most EOs in recent history. As of this writing, here are the EO numbers to date:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Trump &#8211; 220 in his first term and 255 so far<\/li><li>Biden issued 150<\/li><li>Obama issued 276.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>All three president\u2019s numbers warrant a tyranny label. For reference, James Madison issued 1 in eight years. One.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>Deportations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Where were the \u201cNo Kings\u201d rallies during the Obama administration? As of this writing, here are the deportation numbers by president:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Trump: approximately 1 million<\/li><li>Biden: approximately 1.5 million<\/li><li>Obama: approximately 3 million (Garnering the nickname Deporter-in-Chief)<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Where was the deportation outrage among liberals from 2008-2024? There should have either been outrage this entire time, or no outrage now. And where are the conservatives now that were outraged during the terms of Obama and Biden?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When asked which constitutional amendment, provision, clause Trump is ignoring, the only answer I got was \u201cAll of them!\u201d They simply could not answer it. They had no defense of their own. The binary approach is what is disingenuous. It\u2019s not that they disagree with tyranny, it\u2019s that their team isn\u2019t in office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is a current issue with this on the other side. Conservatives are no better. Why aren\u2019t more conservatives speaking out against the number of EOs? I understand the need for them, but the abuse is rampant and every president uses them like tyrannical building blocks. They have no place in a republic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the record, I haven\u2019t seen much in the way of ignoring the U.S. Constitution on the part of Obama or Trump. Biden, however, trampled on it, particularly through Covid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>A Call to Action<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>So why are we only hearing about the president on the \u201cother side?\u201d (Reminder, you don\u2019t have a side. They don\u2019t care about you. And the sooner you realize this, <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.stevestewartwilliams.com\/p\/warning-politics-may-be-bad-for-your-mental-health\">the better off your mental health will be<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We must find a way to bridge this divide. The reality that we cannot see or understand those on the \u201cother side\u201d is quietly dissolving the moral and social fabric upon which our society depends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Homophily is common. This is the tendency to interact with those similar to ourselves more often than those considered different. You see this every day. Think about who you\u2019re drawn to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Frequents the same establishments<\/li><li>Enjoys the same hobbies<\/li><li>Has a similar intellect<\/li><li>Similar familial situation<\/li><li>Political and religious worldview<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2>What Research Says<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Individuals tend to underestimate the extent to which dialogue with those holding opposing views can refine their thinking and enhance their understanding of complex issues. Multiple research studies suggest that individuals may underestimate their level of agreement with a piece of communication from across the political aisle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>People expect that listening to opposing views will be unpleasant (Dorison et al., 2019). This was found to be a forecasting error. Their assumption stood directly in their way, subsequently affecting information consumption.<\/li><li>They expect that others who do not share their views will respond negatively to them (Wald et al., 2024). They found that people underestimate the <em>degree of common ground that would emerge in conversation and from failing to appreciate the power of social forces in conversation that create social connection.<\/em><\/li><li>People are afraid they will not feel heard by others during a conversation (Teeny &amp; Petty, 2022). Feeling, in advance, that they will not be heard, they are significantly more reluctant to enter into conversation with anyone with opposing views.<\/li><li>Brand new research showed that each participant underestimated levels of depolarization after having a conversation with them about various topics: Dogs vs cats, cancel culture, Biden\u2019s performance as president (Kardas et al., 2026). All had the same outcome. Another finding within this study was that if one was told that it\u2019s been shown that polarization reduces after conversations with others with different viewpoints, their own polarization reduced, without the conversation ever having taken place. Just the idea that someone else may have a different view and that previous experiments showed most depolarized after discussions caused a solid shift in their own polarization. Each participant found unexpected areas of agreement when discussing issues typically viewed as polarized.<\/li><li><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Todd Kashdan<\/a> proposed that curiosity itself was a driving factor behind reluctance towards political conversation. His team found that people incorrectly assumed others would be closed-minded towards cross-aisle conversations. Yet when they discovered that their political in-group displayed more humility and open-mindedness than originally anticipated, their curiosity increased, leading to more fruitful and willing conversations across the aisle (Kashdan et al., 2025).<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Handshake-of-unity-between-parties-1024x683.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1222\" width=\"552\" height=\"368\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Handshake-of-unity-between-parties-1024x683.png 1024w, https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Handshake-of-unity-between-parties-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Handshake-of-unity-between-parties-768x512.png 768w, https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Handshake-of-unity-between-parties.png 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 552px) 100vw, 552px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2>Tribalism Must Go<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Moral of the story? <strong>You\u2019re probably wrong. And so am I<\/strong>. And that\u2019s ok. Let\u2019s change. Tribalism is a cancer. It does no one any good. It becomes evident that we have misjudged the depth of our own intellectual flexibility, as well as that of others, underestimating our shared capacity to adapt, to remain curious, and to reshape our thinking in response to new evidence. I\u2019ve been as guilty as anyone. I get caught up in, \u201cThey\u2019re not going to listen to anything I have to say anyway, I\u2019m not going to waste my time.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sometimes this is rooted in a quiet but powerful presumption that we already possess the truth, and that the task of the other is merely to recognize it and follow. In such a posture, curiosity is not only diminished but also displaced, though it may be the most essential element of all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Such curiosity led me to here. Years ago, I decided to learn. Really learn. And the more I learned, the more I understood the premise behind Socrates\u2019 claim, <em>\u201cI am the wisest among you because I know nothing.\u201d<\/em> He found that the more he learned, the more he realized how much was out there to learn. And he possessed a small, minute fraction of the information available. For me, this led to openness and curiosity. Which led to anti-tribalism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As stated in my first book, <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/a.co\/d\/095p7EYA\"><em>America\u2019s Great Threat: America<\/em><\/a>, America won\u2019t fall from the outside. It will collapse from within, foremost among the causes is a rigid, binary way of thinking that divides people and discourages curiosity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>End Tribalism!<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stay Classy GP!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Grainger<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4>References<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Dorison, C. A., Minson, J. A., &amp; Rogers, T. (2019). Selective exposure partly relies on faulty affective forecasts.<em> Cognition, 188<\/em>, 98\u2013107. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.cognition.2019.02.010\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.cognition.2019.02.010<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kardas, M., Nordgren, L., &amp; Rucker, D. (2026). Unnecessarily divided: Civil conversations reduce attitude polarization more than people expect.<em> Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 130<\/em>(2), 187\u2013214. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1037\/pspa0000469\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1037\/pspa0000469<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kashdan, T. B., McKnight, P. E., Kelso, K., Craig, L., &amp; Gross, M. (2025). Enhancing curiosity with a wise intervention to improve political conversations and relationships.<em> Scientific Reports, 15<\/em>(1), 40272\u201311. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41598-025-24021-8\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41598-025-24021-8<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Teeny, J. D., &amp; Petty, R. E. (2022). Attributions of emotion and reduced attitude openness prevent people from engaging others with opposing views.<em> Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 102<\/em>, 104373. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jesp.2022.104373\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jesp.2022.104373<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Wald, K. A., Kardas, M., &amp; Epley, N. (2024). Misplaced divides? Discussing political disagreement with strangers can be unexpectedly positive.<em> Psychol Sci, 35<\/em>(5), 471\u2013488. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/09567976241230005\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/09567976241230005<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Curiosity, Conversation, and the Quiet Collapse of a Divided Society In Case You Missed Recent Articles The recent \u201cNo Kings\u201d protests garnered less attention than previous rallies. While it seems to be dying out, it still got my attention. I spoke with people who attended them, read write-ups on the protests, and watched various clips &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/2026\/04\/14\/according-to-research-you-and-i-are-probably-wrong\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;According to Research, You and I Are Probably Wrong&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0},"categories":[72,6],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1220"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1220"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1220\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1223,"href":"https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1220\/revisions\/1223"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1220"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1220"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tidbitsofaudacity.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1220"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}